Author: uNity
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This year's ESWC UT tournament differs from last year's in the sense that it has changed format, moving from a nation-based qualifier to an invitational "Masters" tournament. After a few bumps in the road as to the selection of the participants, the ESWC (beginning today) reached a consensus that made everyone happy.
However, seeing as how true seeding would be highly difficult in such a tournament, the ESWC organisers went about it a little differently. Three pools were created and players were put into these pools. For simplicity's sake, here they are again:
High-seed Pool:
Gitzzz
Lauke
Stryfe
Th0r
Low-seed Pool:
BurningDeath
Forrest
CombatCarl
Zulg
Challengers Pool:
Fist1
Infinite
Mad
Mburr
Rocketboy
Schnig
Shag
Varagh
These 16 players will be divided into four groups of four in the following manner: one player from the high-seed pool, one player from the low-seed pool and two from the challengers pool. A very smart move on ESWC's part that should provide a fairer environment and some high quality games. Moving on, then.
The Safe Bets
In any and every tournament, there always are safe bets. These are the people who consistently perform well and, generally, finish in the top spots. In this case, these are:
- GitzZz
- Lauke
- th0r
GitzZz needs no introduction. Possibly the most famous UT player, he's won two consecutive WCG titles for the original, and also won last year's ESWC tournament. In essence, this means that the only large, international tournaments GitzZz did not win were 2002's Winter CPL, which he did not attend, and 2003's WCG, which he could not attend, due to various somewhat sketchy reasons.
Will he perform again? Time will tell, but betting him agaisnt him is alot like betting agaisnt Superman. I'm not saying he's an alien or that he looks good in tights, but damn this guy can frag.
Lauke, on the other hand, is less of a "sure" thing, but I wouldn't bet agaisnt him, ever. Mostly, this is due not to his most impressive second place at last year's WCG, but to his victory at the CXG tournament. Some of you might remember the fiasco that was CXG, and however horrible it might've been, the UT tournament finished. Lauke had been pushed into the loser's bracket, and to win, he needed to defeat Lotus in two best 2 out of 3 series, a feat that, to my knowledge, has never been done in any large scale official tournament. Lauke played his little heart out and won both series 2 victories to 1.
Why is this impressive? Besides the fact that it's never (or barely) been done, Lotus was a world-class player and beating him in this manner is no easy task. Will he be able to do the same this year? That's debatable, but rest assured he'll definitely be bringing his A game.
As for th0r, well, he's a safe bet because of his many online victories in the various tournaments Euroland has been graced with. It'd be pretty silly to bet agaisnt him, but then again, last year saw R0X, another online superstar, lose rather viciously in the actual LAN tournament. Last year also saw CombatCarl, on the North American side, do the same. Both players could beat anyone online, yet when it came to LANs, couldn't pull it out. Perhaps th0r's luck is different, and he's got enough experience in international tournaments to ensure his nerves won't be a problem.
Let's hope the frenchman puts on a good show.
The Wild Cards
These players are all really, really good, yet all have one problem unique to them that might prove to be their downfall.
Stryfe, America's best hope at this tournament, is a notorious underachiever. It seems, to my eyes, that he doesn't have the same drive, the same passion, as the aforementionned safe bets. He's extremely talented, his aim is fierce and his strategy, while sometimes unorthodox, works for him. The problem, however, is when he reaches the top, the last few rounds. He's said himself that it, in a way, saturates him, and he can't perform afterwards. He's content with his placing, before that placing is final. This, in turn, leads to problems.
Will he be able to overcome this, to push himself with passion and play to his full potential throughout?
CombatCarl is well-known across for the globe for his talent and his... mouth. Possibly the strongest player aim-wise in the United States, he too suffers greatly from a most unfortunate problem: he's a choker. He performs extremely well in the comfort of his own home, and his online successes are nothing to be laughed at (he recently beat stryfe), but when it comes to LAN play, ouch. Last year, although being skilled enough to beat most everyone at the various qualifiers he attended, he lost.
The question, in regards to CombatCarl, is if he'll be able to control his emotions and nerves. If he does, I predict a strong top 5 finish for this former clanmate and loudmouth.
I had my doubts about including Forrest in this category and not the former, since he won last year's WCG, but that was basically out of nowhere. I don't think anyone outside of those who played him regularly expected it, and I sure as hell didn't. The issue here is that, when he attended CXG, his performance was quite sub par. He said he didn't practice, and it most certainly showed. Has he been able to practice in UT2K4? Yes. Will it be enough? I'm not so sure. While he was in a league of his own with Lauke during last year's WCG, alot has changed since then, and he might not have had enough time to recuperate.
Then again, I'm half italian. GO NATIONAL PRIDE.
Finally, we come to zulg. Dear dear zulg. He finished second at last year's ESWC, a feat no one expected, and since then, zip. He's been highly inactive and, for the most part, no one knows where he stands. Then again, last year, he'd lose most of his practice games, and people dismissed him quickly. Is he a one-trick pony, or can he pull out another miracle from his bag of tricks?
Personally, I hope so. He's a very entertaining player to watch.
The Dismissed Majority
You'll notice that many of the players were not mentionned. It's not that I don't think they're skilled enough to win, simply that I don't know nearly enough about them to make accurate predictions.
However, it'll be interesting to see if the infamous infinite can put his play where his mouth is, a feat he's never actually managed. Also, seeing the former chinese superstar Quaker RocketBoy perform, a dark horse in previous Quake 3 WCG tournaments, will be a most delectable event.
Let us hope that the other participants will all give us a good show, no?
My Predictions
1-3:
Stryfe, GitzZz, Lauke
4-5:
CombatCarl, Forrest
6-8:
Zulg, th0r, RocketBoy (HA!)
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